NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:In Virginia GOP primary, Trump and McCarthy try to oust House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good

Republican voters in Virginia's 5th Congressional District are NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Centergoing to the polls Tuesday to decide whether to hand another term to House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good or replace him with Virginia state Sen. John McGuire, a former Navy SEAL, in a race that has highlighted a divide within the Trump faction of the GOP.

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election tracker, rates the race "Solid Republican," so the winner of the Republican primary is almost certain to win the general election in Southside Virginia.

Good, running for his fifth term, lost the support of both Kevin McCarthy-aligned Republicans in the wake of his vote to oust McCarthy as speaker and former President Donald Trump, after he endorsed the former president's primary opponent, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Good later endorsed Trump after DeSantis dropped out, but not soon enough for Trump, who posted on Truth Social, "It was too late" — and then endorsed his primary challenger.

"Bob Good is BAD FOR VIRGINIA, AND BAD FOR THE USA," Trump wrote, adding, "I just want to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, and the person that can most help me do that is Navy Seal and highly respected State Legislator, John McGuire, a true American Hero."

At a telerally for McGuire on Monday night, Trump said, "If he's reelected, Bob Good will stab Virginia in the back, sort of like he did with me."

McGuire has also been knocking Good in ads for his disloyalty to Trump. In a recent ad, McGuire is holding a rifle while a narrator says, "Trump doesn't need another backstabber in Congress. He needs John McGuire — a straight shooter who always has his six."

McGuire not only has the former president's support but also has been endorsed by other Trump-aligned Republicans including Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Freedom Caucus member Warren Davidson. Some of Good's  GOP colleagues in Washington have come to the district to support McGuire, including Rep. Jen Kiggans of Virginia, who has even helped fundraise for Good's challenger.

But Good still has a swath of endorsements from congressional Republicans like Reps. Matt Gaetz and Byron Donald of Florida and Virginia Rep. Ben Cline.

Outside groups, including Club for Growth and the House Freedom Fund, also donated millions to promote Good's reelection bid while others — some with ties to McCarthy — spent millions trying to oust him. McGuire also narrowly outraised Good, $1.2 million to $1.1 million, according to May federal election documents.

This will be McCarthy's second attempt to unseat one of the lawmakers who voted to oust him. He did not succeed in dislodging Rep. Nancy Mace, who won her primary last week.

Polls are open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

In:
• United States Congress
• Donald Trump
• Kevin McCarthy